I've taken a look at many companies and called them lame, boring, or generic... only to find that years later, they've blown up to be the hottest companies on the block.
I didn't actually have the opportunity to invest into
Google back in 1999 because I was only nine years old, but I've heard of so many people passing on the idea of either working for or investing into Google. Firstly, there's no possible way for people to completely know which companies are bound for success. Instead, it's much easier to tell which startups are destined for failure, mainly by looking at the management team.
I was reading a blog post by Ben McConell from
Church of the Customer, and he was talking about the idea of predicting the outcome of something like the superbowl:
"It's impossible to know. Too many other variables are at play. It may be fun to talk about, but it's not very productive."
When I was asked to speak on the future of web at an upcoming conference, I immediately knew that I couldn't make a prediction about the future of web, let alone the future of a startup. Practically speaking, trying to predict the web is a philosophical sense seems to be unproductive, but knowing what WON'T happen in the future seems more worthwhile. (and much more entertaining!) You see this happen in all realms of business and life: as an investor, you decide which companies not to invest into. As an entrepreneur, you decide which ideas not to pursue. As an admissions officer at Harvard, you decide which students not to admit. As a student, you decide which classes not to take. The list goes on forever.
I have a friend who was classmates with Sergey and Larry back in the late 90's, and he heard about the opportunity to join the duo in a weird search indexing startup. Like most of his classmates, he took a pass. Many of you are probably thinking, "WHY WOULD YOU PASS ON SUCH AN AWESOME COMPANY?" Well, everybody has a startup! Everybody is doing their own thing, trying to attract other people. There was no way for the students to predict which startup was the one worth joining. Instead, they decide which ones not to join because it's a much easier task.
Bessemer Venture Partners, a well known venture capital firm, has a publicly displayed
anti-portfolio. It lists all of the amazing companies that include the likes of eBay, Google, HP, and Apple that the venture firm decided NOT to invest in. This just comes to show that not even the best venture firms are always able to see future success.
Bessemer Venture Partners is perhaps the nation's oldest venture capital firm, carrying on an unbroken practice of venture capital investing that stretches back to 1911. This long and storied history has afforded our firm an unparalleled number of opportunities to completely screw up.
A venture firm that's able to showcase an anti-portfolio must be incredibly secure with itself. They get thousands of business plans per year and can only invest into a select few. If you don't get a pass, it doesn't mean failure. But if your team sucks (just as many of mine have in the past,) you're destined for failure before you even brainstorm your idea. Bessemer Venture Partners can't possibly look at each startup in heavy detail because it's unproductive. Just like college admission officers, they weed out the majority and focus on only the one's with most potential.
But bottom line? Success is unpredictable, but failure is much easier to spot. If you're in the position of making a choice, first focus on what not to choose.
Jessica Mah is a 17 year old entrepreneur, blogger, and sophomore in college. She's currently the founder of a startup, managing editor at Startupism.com, and Jessicamah.com.